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Seasonal outlook for February-April 2020

Scheduled maintenance will take place Friday July 3.  Downtime will be from 6-12 CET. 
 

The images below show multi model ensemble probability forecasts for February to April 2019, for surface temperature and precipitation.

 

Temperature FMA 2020 Outlook

For the February March April 2020 (FMA20) period, there is probability of 40% or more that temperatures will be above normal in the Alaskan region (very light red areas in the figure below) and over most of the continental Canadian Arctic. Canadian Archipelago has similar above normal expectations for temperature but with somewhat more probability, around 50%-60% or more for the next FMA20 season. Over the Atlantic region, there are equal chances for an above, below or near normal winter over the southern and central Greenland, while the chances of 40% or higher are expected over the northern Greenland and Iceland. Over Scandinavia, there are at least 60% probability that the temperatures will be above normal in FMA20. European and West Siberian regions are respectively expecting 60% and 50 % (or more) chances to have an above normal winter. Eastern parts of the Western Siberian region have more chances (greater than 60%) to have an above normal FMA20. Continental parts of the Eastern Siberian region have 60-70% chances to have an above normal FMA20 while these expectancies are rising, reaching the coastal regions and peaking at 70% (or more) near Laptev Sea. Chukchi region has around 50% chances to have an above normal FMA in the south, while these expectances are higher in the northern, central and eastern parts of the region reaching at least 60% probability.

 

temperature outlook february march april 2020

 

Precipitation FMA 2020 Outlook

Over the largest part of the Arctic region, there are expectances to have an above normal precipitation for the second part of the winter FMA20. Over most of the Alaskan and western Canadian Arctic, these expectances are rather week (40% or more). Over the northern Alaska, near the Beaufort Sea, the chance is somewhat higher reaching 50% or more. Atlantic region is also expecting at least 40% chance for an above normal precipitation over Island, while equal chances are expected over most of the Greenland areas. Similar probability of ~40% or more is expected over Norway, Finland and norther Sweden, while equal precipitation probabilities are expected for central and southern Sweden. European and Western Siberian regions also have ~40% or more chances for an above normal probability precipitation outcomes during the second part of the winter 2019/2020. West Siberian region is expecting at least 40% chance for an above normal precipitation in the south, while the chance is increasing reaching at least 50% over its northern parts. Similarly, Chukchi region has 40% chance for above normal winter debut over its southern portions and at least 50% chance for an above normal FMA near the Western Siberian Sea.

 

precipitation outlook february march april 2020